St. Louis Blues (+ 130) vs. Minnesota Wild (-150)
Minnesota grades out as a top-10 team by expected goals, but the Blues still manage to earn a similar share of the goals in all situations. St. Louis doesn’t jump out as a contender thanks to their 48.3 percent shot share, but like the Wild, they’re one of the hottest teams in the league heading into the playoffs and they are well suited to play the pond hockey style that we’ve seen in three games between the two clubs this season. St. Louis won all three meetings, starting with a 6-4 win on New Year’s Day at Target Field, and they won the other two games (both in April) in overtime. I’m not punishing the Wild too harshly for their record in the season series, as they did not have a single home game, and they weren’t always healthy, but I am not going to dismiss it, either.
It’s unclear who will start in goal for either team, but my prediction won’t change much regardless, as all four goaltenders have been underwhelming me with their play over the past few months. Ville Husso has had the best season out of any of the goaltenders that could play in this series, but goaltending, and what leads some having success and other not being so lucky, is a bit of a mystery. Jordan Binnington’s a wild card, and even if we forget about his time spent in Chicago, Marc-Andre Fleury’s play has been underwhelming at best. Cam Talbot has been the worst of the bunch according to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, but goaltenders are voodoo, so I won’t talk trash about him. All in all, I don’t have a lot of confidence in any of the goaltenders in this series. According to my model, the Wild will win the series about 51 percent (-104) of the time. Clearly, oddsmakers (and some bettors) feel much differently about this series, as the Blues are priced as high as + 140 at some shops and seeing people that I respectfully suggest that the Wild should be a clear favorite does make me worry that I’m missing something, I trusted my process and bet on the underdog to win the series at + 130.
Pick:
St. Louis Blues Series + 130
Los Angeles Kings (+ 200) vs. Edmonton Oilers (-250)
A couple of months ago I would have thought I’d be one of the first to bet on the Los Angeles Kings to eliminate the Edmonton Oilers in the playoffs. However, once it was announced that Drew Doughty was going to miss the rest of the season, and the Oilers started to peak, the chances of that happening began to fade. Edmonton always would’ve been the favorite, but my model has come around on the team, at least as it relates to this matchup. They’re the fourth best offensive team over the last two months, and while their schedule has been light, the Kings are going to have a tough time keeping pace. The Oilers are a good enough team to hang with the Kings in terms of fighting for their share of the puck, and unless Los Angeles can dictate the pace of play and tilt the shot share in their direction by a large margin, the Oilers are almost certainly going to outscore them. The Kings’ gameplan can’t be to go shot for shot with the Oilers, because if they play the percentages they’ll lose. Los Angeles has the worst offense of any of the 16 playoff teams. They’re one of only two playoff teams that have failed to score at least three goals per 60 minutes in all situations, and while they are among the top-10 in shot attempt percentage and expected goals, they are a breakeven team with a plus-three goal differential on the season.
Confidence shouldn’t be high in Mike Smith, but it is encouraging to see him head into the playoffs on a hot streak. Jonathan Quick has been good all season long, though, and while I’m not ready to say he’s back, he has saved the team approximately 12 goals above expected this season. He’s a two-time Stanley Cup winner, so he’s not going to be rattled by the stage, or the star power. The Kings have some good offensive players. Adrian Kempe scored 35 goals, and Phillip Danault potted 27. Viktor Arvidsson would’ve score close to 25-30 goals if not for the fact that he missed 16 games. The Kings could defeat the Oilers in a game, but even if their veterans play their best hockey, and two or three young players rise to the occasion, it will still be tough to do four times without a lot of luck. This is a series where I wouldn’t be shocked to see the underdog play well and lose every game 4-1, but don’t take that as a prediction. I’m just trying to explain the kind of hockey we might see. Los Angeles is a well-structured team, and coaching could play a big role in this series. Todd McLellan knows Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and some of the other Oilers well from his time in Edmonton and maybe he has a plan to try and get their best players off their game. That’s easier said than done, though, and Edmonton looks poised to move past the Kings and onto the next round. According to my model, the Oilers will win the series almost 72 percent of the time, which means they should be priced around -255.
Nashville Predators (+ 450) vs. Colorado Avalanche (-600)
David Rittich and the Nashville Predators picked up a come-from-behind win over the Colorado Avalanche in the final days of the regular season, but obviously oddsmakers have not put any stock into that. The Avalanche are huge favorites, and rightfully so. The injury to Juuse Saros is a big blow Nashville’s chance of winning this series. The Predators still would have been bid underdogs no matter what, but now that it looks like Rittich will be the starting goaltender in round one, it’s hard to see them winning a game or two at the most. Nashville has been a mediocre team for the past few seasons, and Saros will likely be in consideration for the Vezina Trophy at the end of the year. Saros posted a .918 save percentage this season and saved the team approximately 13 goals above expected. Rittich, on the other hand, has a .886 save percentage on the season, and has cost the team about seven goals above expected. They do have two 40-goal scorers in Matt Duchene and Filip Forsberg, which is something the Avalanche don’t have, but Colorado is a much deeper team. The Avalanche and Predators have been scoring goals at about the same rate over the past couple of months, but Colorado didn’t have two of their top three scorers (Gabriel Landeskog and Mikko Rantanen) for a long stretch, and Nazem Kadri and other important players also missed time. According to my model, the Avalanche will win the series almost 90 percent of the time, which doesn’t seem real, but here we are. I could recommend a bet on the Avalanche to win the series straight up, or cover the series spread (-1.5) at -260, since my model suggests it should be priced around -325, but I’m going to look for other ways to capitalize on this mismatch of a series.
Calgary Flames Series Spread (-1.5) -140
Dallas Stars (+ 235) vs. Calgary Flames (-320)
For those of us holding Calgary Flames’ futures, it was bummer to see the Nashville Predators blow a 4-0 lead to the Arizona Coyotes. If they had of held on, Calgary would’ve matched up with them and they would’ve had the best chance of moving onto round two. A matchup with the Dallas Stars is a decent consolation prize, though, and the Flames have a great chance of getting past them. The Flames won the season series 2-1, and most recently defeated the Stars 4-2 to clinch the Pacific Division crown. Aside from the Los Angeles Kings, the Stars are the only other playoff team that is coming in having scored less than three goals per 60 minutes during the regular season, and the Flames are one of the best offensive teams in the league, having scored 3.55 goals per 60 minutes during the 82-game campaign. They’re also a top-five team on defense, and starting goaltender Jacob Markstrom, who had a season worthy of a Vezina Trophy nomination, gives them a big edge in goal. Jake Oettinger (.913 save percentage) has been fine for the Stars this season, but he saved his team more than a goal above expected in 48 games played and that pales in comparison to Markstrom’s .921 save percentage and his 16.1 goals saved above expected.
According to my model, the Flame's odds of winning the series should represent an 83.4 percent chance (-500). Calgary is priced short at -320, but that’s a big price and I’d rather lay -140 on the Flames to cover the series spread (-1.5) and win the series in six games or less. Calgary will win the series in six games or less approximately 68 percent of the time, which means the odds should be closer to -210. Calgary is the only other team in the Western Conference that should be spoken in the same breath as the Avalanche, and they should be priced around -500. Calgary was perfect on the road as heavy favorites (-175 or higher) this season and they’ll be big favorites even when they’re in Dallas. This shouldn’t be a long series, but strange things do happen, and if the Flames somehow lose, or fail to cover the series spread, I’ll be glad I didn’t lay -320. Calgary has been my favorite team to bet on all season long because they’re one of the few teams that you can count on to put in a consistent effort. They have a great motivator, head coach Daryl Sutter, behind the bench, and hopefully, his teachings throughout the season lead to a long run in the playoffs, and maybe even a Stanley Cup championship.
Pick:
Calgary Flames Series Spread (-1.5) -140
Bet Summary:
Boston Bruins Series Moneyline -105
Tampa Bay Lightning Series Moneyline + 100
St. Louis Blues Series Moneyline + 130
